OPINION: What Might Likely Happen in Osun West By-Election 2017: By Oladimeji Lasore

Adeleke Support Group factor:

This support group.is currently. In.disarray on the choice and the decampment of Ademola Adeleke to the PDP. Some members believe that Ede politics should not.be seen as a strict Adeleke family affair, while some still.hold the position.that.Ademola Adeleke's decision to.join the PDP is a wrong decision. This will.greatly affect Ademola's chances even in Ede.

Sen. Adeleke's death factor:

It is important to.note that at this time.majority of Ede defendants and late Sen. Adeleke's followers now hold the belief that his death was a providence of God, thanks to the widely publisized proceedings and submission of the Coroner's inquest into the cause of his death. One still expect the campaign team of Ademola Adeleke to appeal to Sen. Isiaka Adeleke's death to gain sympathy votes only in Ede and some adjoining villages.

Osun Political office holders' factor:

The move of Osun APC and the government to appoint party grassrooters into various offices recently is another factor I want to consider. Local government caretaker committee members, Special Advisers, commissioners and even the existing office holders before this development such as House of Assembly members, House of Representatives, Government board members, Secretary to the state government etc must all strive to deliver their local government to claim their acceptability and popularity in their areas.

PDP dwindling popularity factor:

The Peoples Democratic Party may want to use this election to save its face as the popular position generally in Osun is that the PDP has gone nto extinction. The party accepting Demola Adeleke as their candidate at the last minute further proved their unpreparedness and instability in the political terrain of the state. Though it may be underlined that there is still some activities of the PDP that can be noticed in this senatorial zone, but can this enable them to win a by-election of this importance and at this time?

Aregbesola's factor;

The governor himself, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is the man to beat in this election; he's a master planner and game player. The emergence of Sen. Mudashiru Hussein as the APC's candidate is a first victory and a tip of the iceberg for whoever has an inner eye as he is ready to prove that he has finally tamed the PDP in Osun poltics.

Finally I want to consider the Osun West voting pattern based on 2011/2014/2015 Elections.

Ayedaade:

With headquarter in Gbongan, Ayedaade Local Gocernment has the third highest voting capacity in Osun West Senatorial District with 51,108 registered voters. At least, 53.44% of eligible voters in Ayedaade Local Government troop out to cast their vote which if maintained, will be having the contestants sharing about 27,311 votes among themselves in the Local Government. Importantly, people of this area are predominantly APC's. Assault may not be recorded but use of money is expected

Ayedire:

Ayedire is situated in Ile Ogbo with voting capacity of 25,880 has about 66.46% average turn out voting capacity with the expectation of at least 17,200 casted votes. It is an Iwo outlet, is considered to be keenly contested if Alhaji Fatai Akinade Akinbade is to do his home work very well though his failure might favour Senator Hussein if well managed with the influence of Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, Osun State Secretary to the State Government and other forces in the region.

Ede North:

Countryhome to Otunba Ademola Adeleke is undoubtedly a no go area for All Progressive Congress, APC considering the loves of the people for the family of Adeleke and the impact of late Senator Isiaka Adeleke in the nooks and cradle of the Local Government Area. Ede North is having voting capacity of 49,253 registered voters with average turn out rate of 57.44% votes. Asssult may be recorded and the effect may result in low turnout of voters.

Ede South:

Like Ede North, Ede South is a betting point for Otunba Adeleke. Ede South is having voting capacity of 35,941 registered voters with average turn out rate of about 59.12% votes. Assault may be recorded and the resultant tension and fear may result in low turnout of votets. Otunba Adeleke is expected to win this Local Government Area.

Egbedore:

With headquarter in Awo, a very closed community to Ede is having voting capacity of 33,547 registered voters and average turn out rate of 57.51% votes is likely to be devided and majority given to Ademola Adeleke. Assault and the use of money may be recorded here.

Ejigbo:

The countryhome to APC candidate, Senator Mudashiru Hussein; Osun State House of Assembly Speaker, Hon (Rt.) Najeemdeen Salam; House of Representatives member, Hon. Majeed Alabi including other noticeable APC giants. It is undoubtedly no go area for anyone except the son of the soil, Senator Mudashiru Hussein. Ejigbo is having voting capacity of 50,674 registered voters with average turn out rate of 66.61% votes. Senator Hussein is projected here. Assault may not be recorded here.

Irewole:

An Ikire based Local Government is going to be an easy take away for the APC, elder Peter Babalola is an elephant in this local government and is considered to deliver for his party, APC. Irewole is having voting capacity of 52,885 registered voters with average turn out rate of 60% votes. Assault may not be recorded in this area.

Isokan:

With headquarter in Apomu and voting capacity of 28,472 registered voters is known as a stronghold of the APC.

Iwo:

With headquarter in Iwo, Osun West Senatorial District headquarter is having highest voting capacity of about 66,898 registered voters and average turn out rate of 61.63% votes. This zone is seriously agigating to produce Osun next governor. This local government produced Osun State Secretary to the State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti among other front runner politicians, Otunba Adeleke cannot come victorious in this Local Government.

Ola Oluwa:

Mostly populated with villages with voting capacity of 25,550 registered voters. This area is going to be area to flex muscle by each of the contestants. APC has an upper edge here.

My Conclusion:

Going by all indices, the July 8th, 2027 Osun West by-election will be keenly contested and APC's Sen. Mudashiru Hussein shall emerge victorious but the margin may be low and voters turnout may be poor.

Just my candid opinion...