The President of the National Patriots, Adebajo-Fraser, has projected that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could win 25 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the 2027 presidential election.
She said the projection was based on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)'s nationwide political structure, growing alliances, governors' support and the Federal Government's reform programmes.
Adebajo-Fraser, who is also a political strategist and member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council's Strategic Communications Committee for the 2027 elections, explained that the projection was a political assessment, not the result of a scientific opinion poll.
In her analysis, she said elections were not won through social media activities alone but through strong party structures, grassroots mobilisation, good leadership and public confidence.
She noted that the APC had built a strong political network across the country, with governors, lawmakers, party leaders and grassroots members.
She also referred to the party's claim of having about 13 million registered members across the 774 local government areas in Nigeria.
However, she stressed that having millions of party members did not automatically mean all of them would vote for the party.
According to her, Tinubu received 8,794,726 votes in the 2023 presidential election, ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who scored 6,984,520 votes, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who received 6,101,533 votes.
She said the figures showed the importance of strong political organisation and the ability to mobilise voters across different parts of the country.
Governors to Play Major Role in Tinubu's 2027 Campaign
Adebajo-Fraser identified governors and other political leaders as important players in the APC's 2027 campaign strategy.
She mentioned political figures such as Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke, Anambra State Governor Chukwuma Soludo and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, alongside Senate President Godswill Akpabio, former Zamfara Governor Abdulaziz Yari, Kaduna Governor Uba Sani and Enugu Governor Peter Mbah.
She said the President should focus on major campaign activities, while governors and other party leaders should take charge of grassroots mobilisation in their states.
According to her, governors understand the needs of their people, including roads, hospitals, schools, security and support for farmers.
She added that political leaders must take campaign messages to markets, farms, streets, schools and communities instead of depending mainly on social media.
Governors Urged to Show What FAAC Money Has Achieved
The National Patriots president also called on state governors to explain how they had used the increased money coming from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).
She said governors should use campaign rallies to show the people what their states had achieved with the increased revenue.
She listed roads, hospitals, schools, water projects, farming support, transport services and job opportunities as areas where citizens should see clear improvements.
She urged governors to provide facts, project costs and completion dates to prove that public money was being used properly.
She also noted that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) had created a special directorate to monitor state government finances and the use of FAAC allocations.
APC Targets States Won by Opposition in 2023
In her projection, Adebajo-Fraser said the APC would seek to retain the 12 states won by Tinubu in the 2023 presidential election.
These states are Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Borno, Jigawa and Zamfara.
She also identified 13 states won by opposition candidates in 2023 as possible targets for the APC in 2027.
The states include Osun, Bauchi, Yobe, Kaduna, Katsina, Bayelsa, Taraba and Akwa Ibom, which were won by Atiku Abubakar.
The other five states are Lagos, Plateau, Edo, Delta and Cross River, which were won by Peter Obi.
She treated the Federal Capital Territory separately because Obi also won there in 2023.
Adebajo-Fraser said some of the results in 2023 were decided by small margins, showing that political parties would need strong campaigns to win such states.
She also pointed to recent political changes, including Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno's move to the APC, as developments that could affect the political situation ahead of 2027.
However, she noted that political alliances and party membership alone could not guarantee votes.
Tinubu Needs More Votes to Reach 11 Million or 12 Million
The political strategist also examined the number of votes Tinubu would need to increase his 2023 total.
She explained that the President would need an additional 2.2 million votes to reach 11 million votes in 2027.
To reach 12 million votes, he would need about 3.2 million additional votes.
She described these figures as possible vote-growth scenarios rather than confirmed election predictions.
She also explained that winning the presidential election was not only about the number of states won but also about meeting the constitutional requirement for geographical spread.
Opposition Parties Challenged to Show Their Campaign Plans
Adebajo-Fraser also challenged opposition parties to explain their plans for the 2027 presidential election.
She said Nigerians wanted to know when opposition candidates would visit different parts of the country, how they planned to mobilise supporters and what solutions they had for the country's problems.
She said opposition parties should present clear plans on security, employment, education, infrastructure and the rising cost of living.
She added that media appearances and social media activities were important but should not replace direct contact with voters.
Tinubu's Reforms to Be Tested in 2027
On the performance of the Tinubu administration, Adebajo-Fraser said the government's reforms and their effects on Nigerians would remain important issues during the 2027 election.
She noted that supporters of the government point to increased government revenue, economic reforms and infrastructure projects as major achievements.
However, she acknowledged that Nigerians were still facing high food prices, transport costs, insecurity and other economic difficulties.
She said the government must provide clear evidence of its achievements, accept areas where it had not done well and explain how it planned to address the remaining challenges.
Adebajo-Fraser maintained that the National Patriots' projection of 25 states and the FCT for Tinubu was based on political structures, alliances and campaign organisation.
She stressed that the final decision would rest with Nigerian voters at the ballot box.
Adebajo-Fraser, MFR, FIPMD, is a political strategist, governance and perception management consultant, author, researcher and publisher of Nigeria's Great Reset. She is also President of the National Patriots and a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council's Strategic Communications Committee for the 2027 elections.
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