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Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke faces an unprecedented political dilemma as the 2026 governorship race looms. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a dominant national force, is now fractured by factional warfare, leaving Adeleke without a clear platform just weeks before the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) primary deadline of December 15, 2025.
A party in disarray
The PDP’s internal conflict has escalated from policy disagreements to street‑level clashes in Abuja. Two rival blocs – the Turaki‑Makinde faction (led by National Chairman Tanimu Turaki, backed by Governors Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed) and the Wike‑Anyanwu bloc (led by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Senator Samuel Anyanwu) – have each claimed legitimacy. Their showdown on November 18 culminated in tear‑gas at the PDP headquarters, with Turaki even appealing to former U.S. President Donald Trump for “democracy‑saving” intervention.
Policy analyst Prof Anthony Kila describes the situation as a “national collapse of civility and institutional order,” warning that a disintegrating opposition threatens democratic stability.
Consequences for Osun
Because the party’s national officers are split – Acting National Chairman Umar Damagun and National Secretary Samuel Anyanwu belong to opposing factions – INEC is unlikely to recognise any PDP nomination paperwork for Osun. Senator Anyanwu has already pledged not to sign primary documents for the state, and PDP National Deputy Vice‑Chairman (Southwest) Kamorudeen Ajisafe has declared that the party cannot realistically field a candidate in the upcoming election.
The Ekiti precedent is ominous: the Wike‑Anyanwu faction’s request to postpone the primary was rejected by INEC because it lacked the joint signatures of both recognised leaders, prompting the Turaki‑Makinde faction to proceed with a primary on November 8.
Governor’s escape routes
With the PDP unable to guarantee a ticket, Adeleke is reportedly exploring alternative platforms:
- Accord Party – Negotiations are said to be the furthest advanced, with internal talks underway about how the governor would be received.
- All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – Also under consideration, though the party’s regional base is largely in the South‑East.
- African Democratic Congress (ADC) – Rumours have been denied by the governor’s aide.
Defection carries risk. APC chieftain Abiola Ogundokun has mocked the idea, suggesting that a sitting governor negotiating with smaller parties signals desperation. Yet the APC itself is watching the PDP’s collapse with “strategic calm,” hoping to capitalise on the disarray.
Grassroots vs. party machinery
Adeleke retains strong grassroots support, especially among young voters and traditional networks that helped him win in 2022. However, the loss of party machinery – exemplified by a recent no‑confidence vote in Deputy Governor Kola Adewusi and former National Secretary Wale Oladipo – has weakened his position in key constituencies such as Ife Federal Constituency, the political heartland of Osun.
Three strategic paths
1. Stay in the PDP – Preserves loyalty but offers no guarantee of a valid nomination; the party’s internal split makes a quick resolution unlikely.
2. Defect to the APC – Solves the nomination problem and aligns him with federal power, but exposes him to accusations of opportunism after a public rejection earlier.
3. Join a smaller party (Accord or APGA) – Provides a clean ticket and shields him from PDP turmoil, yet requires rapid construction of a statewide campaign apparatus.
Each option entails sacrifice, and none is without political peril.
Broader democratic stakes
Political scientists warn that the PDP’s implosion is not merely a local crisis. A collapsed opposition could push Nigeria toward a de‑facto one‑party system, eroding democratic legitimacy. The situation in Osun therefore serves as a microcosm of the nation’s democratic challenges.
The clock is ticking.
With the December 15 primary deadline fast approaching, Governor Adeleke must decide whether to clain a sinking ship or chart a new course before the tide turns.
✍️By Raymond Mordi
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Daniel Adewole Awe Medical Center is a healthcare facility located in Ilesa, Osun State, providing quality primary and secondary healthcare
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