Below is a concise analysis of the factors that may make an Adeleke defeat almost inevitable according to the Osun Central Elite Caucus
1. Loss of Support in Osun East (Ife‑Ijesha Axis)
- Mass Defection: Political heavyweights, grassroots mobilisers and party structures that previously backed Adeleke have switched en masse to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, Hon. Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO).
- Weakened Base: The Ife and Ijesha regions, which delivered crucial votes in 2022, are now largely out of Adeleke’s reach, reducing his overall vote tally by a significant margin.
2. Fragmented Home Base – Osun West
- Crowded Field: Almost every major governorship aspirant now hails from Osun West, the governor’s own backyard.
- Vote Splitting: The bloc support that once coalesced around Adeleke is now divided among several contenders, diluting his advantage and giving the APC a clearer path to victory.
3. Divided Vote in Ejigbo (ADC Presence)
- Sympathy Vote for ADC: Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is expected to draw sympathy votes, pulling away potential Adeleke supporters.
- APC Dominance: Oyebamiji’s strong party machinery and brand recognition are projected to capture the bulk of the remaining votes, further marginalising Adeleke.
4. Iwo – “Party Factor” Limits Adeleke
- Alliances Not Enough: The impact of Adeleke’s alliance with Moshood Adeoti is not enough--- Oyebamiji’s party infrastructure will still dominate.
- “Party Factor” Constraint: Adeleke’s limited influence within the ruling party in Iwo hampers his ability to mobilise the local vote.
5. Regional Landslide Dynamics
- Edeland (Adeleke’s Stronghold): The governor is expected to win a landslide here, but this is offset by a comparable landslide for Oyebamiji in his home local government of Irewole.
- Balanced Outcome: The net effect is a neutralisation of the advantage Adeleke might have gained from his own region.
6. Osun Central – Weakened Allies and Over‑reliance on Traditional Leaders
- Ineffective Allies: Key government officials and the governor’s political adviser, Muniru Raji, are described as “politically diminished” and unable to sway the electorate in Osogbo.
- Over‑rated Influence: Adeleke’s reliance on the Ataoja (traditional ruler) is seen as misplaced, given that the Ataoja is not a core stakeholder in Osogboland politics.
- APC’s Expected Sweep: APC will win Osogbo Federal Constituency and other local government areas in the district, further eroding Adeleke’s chances.
7. Overall Shift in Public Perception
- Concentration of Development in Edeland: The Adeleke administration’s focus on Edeland has alienated voters in other parts of the state, reshaping public perception against the governor.
- Appointees’ Disengagement: Many of Adeleke’s appointees have failed to engage constituents, leading to a broader loss of support across the state.
Conclusion
The cumulative effect of:
- Defection of key political actors in Osun East,
- Vote splitting in Osun West,
- Strong APC structures in Ejigbo and Iwo,
- Neutralising regional landslides,
- Weakened allies and misplaced reliance on traditional authority in Osun Central,
All create a scenario where Governor Ademola Adeleke’s electoral base is fragmented and outmatched by the APC’s coordinated campaign.
Source: Osun Central Elite Caucus
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